David M Eddy MD Ph.D.
201 Mission Street, 29th Floor
San Francisco, CA 94105
415.490.0408
david.eddy@archimedesmodel.com
• Ph.D., Stanford University, Engineering-Economic Systems (Applied
Mathematics), 1978
• MD, University of Virginia, 1968
• BA, Stanford University, 1964
• Named “One of the Ten Most Important People in Managed Care”,
Managed Healthcare Magazine, 1999
• Founders Award, Given for lifetime achievement by the American
College of Medical Quality, 1998.
• Outcomes Leadership Award 1997. An international award given for
lifetime achievement in the field of health outcomes and outcomes
research. Sponsored by Novartis.
• USQA Quality Algorithm Award, 1995. A national award given for
contributions to improving the quality of health care.
• ADD Science Award for Distinguished Contributions to Medicine,
1995. Sponsored by Abbott Laboratories.
• Named “One of the most respected minds in medicine”, Financial
Times (London), 1994
• Finalist, 1st Annual National Institute for Health Care Management
Research Award, 1994. Given for the most important paper published on
the subject of managed care.
• Named one of “Twenty Movers and Shakers in Health Care”, Associated
Press, 1993
• Scientific and Technological Achievement Award, Environmental
Protection Agency, 1993, awarded for “Synthesis of Environmental
Evidence: Nitrogen Dioxide Epidemiology Studies”. Given for the most
outstanding paper published in the field of environmental studies.
• FHP Prize, 1991. An international prize given by the International
Society of Technology Assessment in Health Care for the most important
paper published in the journal "International Journal of Technology
Assessment in Health Care." Given for the development of FAST*PRO and
the Confidence Profile Method for synthesizing evidence.
• Conley Award—Runner-up, awarded by the American College of Hospital
Administrators for the best article published during the year, 1984
• Lanchester Prize, 1980. Given by the Operations Research Society of
America and the Institute of Management Science for the most important contribution to the field of Operations
Research (a branch of applied mathematics). Given for the development of
a mathematical theory of intermittent inspections, and the book
“Screening for Cancer: Theory, Analysis, and Design.”
• Elected, Institute of Medicine/National Academy of Sciences, 1984
• Selected for front cover of Cancer Research, August, 1982
• Ph.D. awarded "With Great Distinction" (Summa cum Laude), Stanford
University
• More than 50 honorary lectureships and keynote addresses
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Current
• Independent researcher, writer and speaker
• Senior Advisor for Health Policy and Management, Kaiser Permanente
Southern California, January 1991 to present
• Chief Scientist, Blue Cross Blue Shield Association / Kaiser
Permanente Technology Evaluation and Coverage (TEC) Program, 1984 to
present
Previous (selected)
• Essayist, Journal of the American Medical Association, 1990 to 1996
• Director, WHO Collaborating Center for Research in Cancer Policy,
1984 to 1996
• Professor of Health Policy and Management, Duke University,
1981-1995
• Professor of Community and Family Medicine, Duke University,
1981-1995
• Special White House Employee (for Hillary Rodham Clinton’s Health
Care Task Force), 1993
• J Alexander McMahon Professor of Health Policy and Management, Duke
University, 1986-1995
• Director, Center for Health Policy Research and Education, Duke
University, 1981-1988
• Professor, Department of Engineering-Economic Systems, School of
Engineering, Stanford University, 1980-1981
• Chief, Bioengineering Research Branch, US Army Medical Research and
Development Command (USAMRDC), 1971-1973
• Resident and Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Cardiovascular Surgery,
Stanford University Medical Center, 1969-1971
• Intern, General Surgery, Stanford University Medical Center, 1968
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• Committee on Performance Measurement, National Committee for
Quality Assurance (NCQA), 1996- 2001
• Performance Measurement Coordinating Council, (sponsored by the
NCQA, JCAHO, and AMA), 1998- 2001
• National Dialogue on Cancer, 1999 - 2001
• Medical Coverage Advisory Committee (Executive Committee), Health
Care Financing Administration, 1999 - 2001
• Several editorial boards
• Board of Directors, National Committee for Quality Assurance (NCQA),
1992 – 1998
• National Board of Mathematics, National Academy of Sciences, 1985 –
1988
• Advisory Council, The World Organization for Science and Health,
1985 – 1996
• WHO Expert Advisory Panel on Cancer, World Health Organization,
1981 – 1996
• Board of Directors, Consumers Union, 1982 – 1987
• More than forty other national and international boards and
committees
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Eddy DM. Clinical Decision Making. From Theory to Practice. Sudbury
MA, Jones and Bartlett Publishers, 1996. (Collection of Dr. Eddy’s
essays published by the American Medical Association)
Eddy DM. A Manual for Assessing Health Practices and Designing
Practice Policies. Philadelphia, American College of Physicians, 1992
Eddy DM, Hasselblad V, Shachter R. The Statistical Synthesis of
Evidence: Meta-Analysis by the Confidence Profile Method. Boston,
Academic Press, 1992 (awarded the FPH prize)
Eddy DM, Hasselblad V. FAST*PRO: Software for Meta-Analysis by the
Confidence Profile Method. Boston, Academic Press, 1992
Eddy DM (Ed) Common Screening Tests. Philadelphia PA, American
College of Physicians 1991
Eddy DM. Screening for Cancer: Theory, Analysis and Design. Englewood
Cliffs NJ, Prentice-Hall, Inc 1980 (awarded the Lanchester Prize, 1980)
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Eddy DM. “Evidence-based Medicine: what it is, why to use it, how to
incorporate it into decision-making, Formulary, October 2002.
Eddy DM. “Archimedes: a new model for simulating health care systems:
the mathematical formulation” Journal of Biomedical Informatics, 2002
35: 37-50.
Eddy DM. “The Use of Evidence and Cost Effectiveness by the Courts:
How can It Help Improve Health Care?” Journal of Health Policy Politics
and Law, March 2001
Eddy DM. “Who Should Determine when Health Care is Medically
Necessary?.” New England Journal of Medicine, 1999 July 1;341(1):59
Eddy DM. “Performance Measurement: Problems and Solutions.” Health
Affairs, July/August, 1998
Eddy DM. “Breast Cancer Screening in Women Younger than 50 years of
age: What’s Next?” Annals of Internal Medicine 127: 1035 (1997).
Eddy DM. “Investigational Treatments. How Strict Should We Be?”
Journal of the American Medical Association 1997; 278: 179-185
Eddy DM, Balancing Cost and Quality in Fee for Service vs. Managed Care, Health Affairs, 1997; 16: 162-173.
Eddy DM. “Benefit Language. Criteria That Will Improve Quality While
Reducing Costs.” Journal of the American Medical Association 1996; 275:
650-657
Schlessinger L, Eddy DM. “The Kaiser Permanente-Sandia National
Laboratory Health Care Model.” Group Practice Journal 1995; 44:14-17, 61
Eddy DM, Hasselblad V. “Analyzing Evidence by the Confidence Profile
Method.” in KA McCormick, SR Moore, RA Siegel (eds) Clinical Practice
Guideline Development. Methodology Perspectives. USDHHS, PHS, AHCPR,
AHCPR Pub No 95-009, November 1994
Eddy DM, Hasselblad V. “Analyzing Indirect Evidence.” in KA
McCormick, SR Moore, RA Siegel (eds) Clinical Practice Guideline
Development. Methodology Perspectives. USDHHS, PHS, AHCPR, AHCPR Pub No
95-009, November 1994
Eddy DM. “Rationing Resources While Improving Quality: How to Get
More for Less.” Journal of the American Medical Association 1994; 272:
817-328
Eddy DM. “Managing Costs by Managing Care.” The Ronald Grieve Lecture.
International Federation of Health Funds Official Proceedings, 15th
International Conference, Auckland NZ February 1994, pp 9-20
Eddy DM. “Health System Reform. Will Controlling Costs Require
Rationing Services?” Journal of the American Medical Association 1994;
272 324-328
Eddy DM. “A Conversation With My Mother.” Journal of the American
Medical Association 1994; 272:179-181
Reprinted in Washington Post, 1994.
Reprinted in “A Piece of My
Mind”, Roxanne K. Young Ed. JAMA Press, 2000
Eddy DM. “Principles for Making Difficult Decisions in Difficult
Times.” Journal of the American Medical Association 1994; 271:1792-1798
Eddy DM. “Practice Guidelines: What Are They, and How Are They
Designed?” Section “CPI and Practice Guidelines” BC James and DM Eddy,
Chapter 9 in SD Horn and DSP Hopkins (eds) Clinical Practice
Improvement: A New Technology for Developing Cost-Effective Quality
Health Care. Volume 1, Faulkner & Gray’s “Medical Outcomes and Practice
Guidelines Library.” Washington DC, Faulkner & Gray’s Healthcare
Information Center, 1994
Eddy DM. “Clinical Decision Making. From Theory to Practice.” Chapter
in PR Lee, CL Estes (eds) The Nation’s Health 4th ed. Boston, Jones and
Bartlett Publishers, 1994
Eddy DM. “Three Battles to Watch in the 1990s.” Journal of the
American Medical Association 1993; 270:520-526
Eddy DM. “Broadening the Responsibilities of Practitioners. The Team
Approach.” Journal of the American Medical Association 1993;
269:1849-1855
Eddy DM. “Three Battles to Watch in the 1990s.” Medicine—The Year in
Review 1992 Medical News and Events, A Medical Tribune/Mosby Year Book
Publication, 1993; p 335
Eddy DM. “Applying Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: The Inside Story.”
Journal of the American Medical Association 1992; 268:2575-2582
Eddy DM. "Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Will It Be Accepted?" Journal
of the American Medical Association 1992; 268:132-136
Eddy DM. "Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Is It Up to the Task?" Journal
of the American Medical Association 1992; 267:3342-3348
Eddy DM. “The Seven Best Tests. David Eddy Ranks the Tests.” Harvard
Health Letter Special Supplement 1992; 17:10-11
Eddy DM. “How to Speed Payment for New Treatments: Lessons from High
Dose Chemotherapy and Bone Marrow Transplantation for Breast Cancer.”
Proceedings of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) 28th
Annual Meeting, May 17-19, 1992
Hasselblad V, Kotchmar DJ, Eddy DM. "Synthesis of Environmental
Evidence: Nitrogen Dioxide Epidemiology Studies." Journal of the Air and
Waste Management Association 1992; 42:662-671
Eddy DM. “Medicine, Money, and Mathematics.” American College of
Surgeons Bulletin 1992; 77:36-49
Eddy DM. "High-Dose Chemotherapy with Autologous Bone Marrow
Transplantation for the Treatment of Metastatic Breast Cancer." Journal
of Clinical Oncology 1992; 10:657-670
Eddy DM. "Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: A Conversation with my
Father." Journal of the American Medical Association 1992;
267:1669-1672, 1674-1675
Eddy DM. "How to Think About Screening" in Common Screening Tests, DM
Eddy (Ed) Philadelphia, American College of Physicians, 1991
Eddy DM. "Oregon's Plan—Should It Be Approved?" Journal of the
American Medical Association 1991; 266:2439-2441, 2443-2445
Eddy DM. "Oregon's Methods—Did Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Fail?"
Journal of the American Medical Association 1991; 266:2135-2138,
2140-2141
Eddy DM. "What's Going on in Oregon?" Journal of the American Medical
Association 1991; 266:417-420
Eddy DM. "The Role of Clinical Practice Policies in Quality
Management." Chapter 6 in J Couch (Ed) Health Care Quality Management
for the 21st Century, The American College of Physician Executives,
American College of Medical Quality, Tampa FL 1991
Eddy DM. "The Individual vs Society. Resolving the Conflict." Journal
of the American Medical Association 1991; 265:2399-2401, 2405-2405
Eddy DM. "The Individual vs Society: Is There a Conflict?" Journal of
the American Medical Association 1991; 265:1446, 1449-1450
Eddy DM. "Uncertainty, Outcomes, and the Quality of Medical Care."
Cornerstones of Health Care in the Nineties. Forging a Framework of
Excellence. Proceedings, September 16-18, 1990, The Homestead, Hot
Springs VA, Sponsored by the Joint Commission on Accreditation of
Healthcare Organizations and The Prudential Insurance Company of
America. Oakbrook Terrace IL, JCAHO 1991
Eddy DM. "What Care is 'Essential'? What Services are 'Basic'?"
Journal of the American Medical Association 1991; 265:782, 786-788
Eddy DM. "Rationing by Patient Choice." Journal of the American
Medical Association 1991; 265:105-108
Eddy DM. "Connecting Value and Cost: Whom Do We Ask and What Do We
Ask Them?" Journal of the American Medical Association 1990;
264:1737-1739
Eddy DM. "What Do We Do About Costs?" Journal of the American Medical
Association 1990; 264:1161, 1165, 1169-1170
Eddy DM. "Screening for Colorectal Cancer." Annals of Internal
Medicine 1990; 113:373-384
Reprinted in Common Screening Tests, DM Eddy (Ed) Philadelphia,
American College of Physicians, 1991
Eddy DM. "Should We Change the Rules for Evaluating Medical
Technologies?" Chapter 10 in Modern Methods of Clinical Investigation,
AC Gelijns (Ed) Volume 1, Medical Innovation at the Crossroads,
Washington DC, National Academy Press, 1990
Eddy DM. "Resolving Conflicts in Practice Policies." Journal of the
American Medical Association 1990; 264:389-391
Eddy DM. "Screening for Cervical Cancer." Annals of Internal Medicine
1990; 113:214-226
Reprinted in Common Screening Tests, DM Eddy (Ed) Philadelphia,
American College of Physicians, 1991
Eddy DM. "The Role of Meta-Analysis" in AHCPR Conference Proceedings,
L Sechrest, E Perrin, Bunker (Eds) "Research Methodology: Strengthening
Causal Interpretations of Nonexperimental Data." USDHHS PHS AHCPR 1990
Eddy DM. "Designing a Practice Policy. Standards, Guidelines, and
Options" Journal of the American Medical Association 1990; 263:3077-3084
Eddy DM. "Comparing Benefits and Harms: The Balance Sheet" Journal of
the American Medical Association 1990; 263:2493-2505
Eddy DM. "Guidelines for Policy Statements" Journal of the American
Medical Association 1990; 263:2239-2243
Eddy DM, Hasselblad V, Shachter R. "A Bayesian Method for
Synthesizing Evidence: The Confidence Profile Method." (awarded FHP
Prize, 1991) International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health
Care 1990; 6:31-55
Eddy DM. "Practice Policies: Guidelines for Methods" Journal of the
American Medical Association 1990; 263:1839-1841
Eddy DM. "Decisions without Information." Harvard Community Health
Plan Annual Report 1989. 1990; 5-9
Melton LJ III, Eddy DM, Johnston CC. "Screening for Osteoporosis."
Annals of Internal Medicine 1990; 112:516-528
Reprinted in Common Screening Tests, DM Eddy (Ed) Philadelphia,
American College of Physicians, 1991
Eddy DM. "Practice Policies: Where Do They Come From?" Journal of the
American Medical Association 1990; 263:1265, 1269, 1272, 1275
Eddy DM. "Practice Policies—What Are They?" Journal of the American
Medical Association 1990; 263:877, 878, 880
Eddy DM. "Anatomy of a Decision." Journal of the American Medical
Association 1990; 263:441-443
Eddy DM. "The Challenge." Journal of the American Medical Association
1990; 263:287-290
Shachter R, Eddy DM, Hasselblad V. "An Influence Diagram Approach to
Medical Technology Assessment" in RM Oliver, JQ Smith (Eds) Influence
Diagrams, Belief Nets and Decision Analysis, London, JH Wiley, 1990
Eddy DM, Hasselblad V, Shachter R. "An Introduction to a Bayesian
Method for Meta-Analysis: The Confidence Profile Method." Medical
Decision Making 1990; 10:15-23
Reprinted in Modern Methods of Clinical Investigation, AC Gelijns
(Ed) Volume 1, Medical Innovation at the Crossroads, Washington DC,
National Academy Press, 1990
Eddy DM. "Selecting Technologies for Assessment." International
Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 1989; 5:485-501
Shachter R, Eddy DM, Hasselblad V, Wolpert R. "A Heuristic Bayesian
Approach to Knowledge Acquisition: Application to Analysis of
Tissue-Type Plasminogen Activator." Proceedings of the Third Workshop on
Uncertainty in AI. Seattle WA, 1987; 229-236
Eddy DM. "Screening for Breast Cancer." Annals of Internal Medicine
1989; 111:389-399
Reprinted in Common Screening Tests, DM Eddy (Ed) Philadelphia,
American College of Physicians, 1991
Reprinted in Selected Readings in General Surgery 1990
Eddy DM. "Screening for Lung Cancer." Annals of Internal Medicine
1989; 111:232-237
Reprinted in Common Screening Tests, DM Eddy (Ed) Philadelphia,
American College of Physicians, 1991
Adar R, Critchfield GC, Eddy DM. "A Confidence Profile Analysis of
the Results of Femoropopliteal Percutaneous Transluminal Angioplasty in
the Treatment of Lower-Extremity Ischemia." Journal of Vascular Surgery
1989; 10:57-67
Eddy DM. "The Confidence Profile Method: A Bayesian Method for
Assessing Health Technologies." Operations Research 1989; 37:210-228
Eddy DM. "Selecting Technologies for Assessment." Int J Technol Asses
Health Care 1989:5(4):485-501.
Eddy DM. "Getting a Handle on Uncertainties in Medical Practice."
Internist. 1989:Jan 30(1):16-20.
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Eddy DM, Hasselblad V, McGivney W, Hendee W. "The Value of
Mammography Screening in Women under Age 50." Journal of the American
Medical Association 1988; 259:1512-1519
Eddy DM. "The Quality of Medical Evidence: Implications for Quality
of Care." Health Affairs. 1988 Spring; 7(1): 19-32.).
Eddy DM, Wolpert RL, Rosenberg ML. "Estimating the Effectiveness of
Interventions to Prevent Youth Suicides." Medical Care 1987; 25:S57-S65
Eddy DM. "The Frequency of Cervical Cancer Screening. Comparison of a
Mathematical Model with Empirical Data." Cancer 1987; 60:1117-1122
Eddy DM, Nugent FW, Eddy JF, et al. "Screening for Colorectal Cancer
in a High-Risk Population. Results of a Mathematical Model."
Gastroenterology 1987; 92:682-692
Eddy DM, Nugent FW, Eddy JF, Coller J. Gilbertsen V, Gottlieb LS,
Rice R, Sherlock P. Winawer S. "Screening for Colorectal Cancer in a
High-risk Population: Results of a Mathematical Model.
"Gastroenterology. 1987 March; 92(3):682-92.
Eddy DM. "CAN*TROL: A Computer Model for Designing National Cancer
Control Strategies.."Bull Cancer. 1987;74(3):323-32.
Eddy DM. "Secondary Prevention of Cancer: An Overview." Bulletin of
the World Health Organization 1986; 64:421-429
Eddy DM. “Medicine, Money and Mathematics.” Bull American College of
Surgeons, June;77(6):36-49
Eddy DM. "A Computer-Based Model for the Design of Cancer Control
Strategies." National Cancer Institute Monographs 1986; 2:75-82
Levin DL, Gail MH, Kessler LG, Eddy DM. "A Model for Projecting
Cancer Incidence and Mortality in the Presence of Prevention, Screening,
and Treatment Programs." National Cancer Institute Monographs 1986;
2:83-93
Eddy DM. "Successes and Challenges of Medical Decision Making."
Health Affairs 1986; 5:108-115
Stjernswärd J, Stanley K, Eddy DM, et al. " National Cancer Control
Programs and Setting Priorities." Cancer Detection and Prevention 1986;
9:113-124
Eddy DM. "Setting Priorities for Cancer Control Programs." Journal of
the National Cancer Institute 1986; 76:187-199
Eddy DM. "Technology Assessment: The Role of Mathematical Modeling."
Section in Assessing Medical Technologies, Institute of Medicine,
Washington DC, National Academy Press, 1985
Eddy DM. "Variations in Physician Practice. The Role of Uncertainty."
Health Affairs 1984; 3:74-89 (Honorable Mention, Conley Award, 1984)
Reprinted in PR Lee, CL Estes (Eds) The Nation's Health (3rd ed).
Boston, Jones and Bartlett, 1990, pp 347-355
Eddy DM. "A Mathematical Model for Timing of Repeated Medical Tests."
Medical Decision Making 1983; 3:45-62
Reprinted in Scandinavian Journal of Clinical and Laboratory
Investigation, Supplement 171, 1984
Eddy DM, Sanders L, Eddy JF. "The Value of Screening for Glaucoma
with Tonometry." Survey of Ophthalmology 1983; 28:194-205
Eddy DM. "Finding Cancer in Asymptomatic People." Cancer 1983;
51:2440-2445. Reprinted in "Cancer Screening: The Most Effective Cure."
H Eyre (Ed) Network for Continuing Medical Education, 1986
Eddy DM. "Flying Without Instruments: Analyzing Medical Policies by
Consensus and Expert Opinion." The John A Hartford Foundation Bulletin,
Winter 1983
Eddy DM. "Probabilistic Reasoning in Clinical Medicine: Problems and
Opportunities." Chapter in
D Kahneman, P Slovic and A Tversky (Eds) Judgement under Uncertainty:
Heuristics and Biases. New York, Cambridge University Press, 1982
Eddy DM. "Clinical Policies and the Quality of Clinical Practice."
New England Journal of Medicine 1982; 307:343-347
Eddy DM, Shwartz M. "The Application of Mathematical Models in
Screening." Chapter in D Schottenfeld, J Fraumeni (Eds) Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention.
WB Saunders Company, 1982
Eddy DM. Clanton C. "The Art of Diagnosis: Solving the
Clinicopathological Exercise." New England Journal of Medicine 1982;
306:1263-1268
Eddy DM. "The Economics of Cancer Prevention and Detection: Getting
More for Less. "Cancer. 1981 Mar 1;47(5 Suppl):1200-9..
Eddy DM. "Detection of Lung Cancer." JAMA.1981 Aug 7;246 (6):621-2.
Eddy DM. "Appropriateness of Cervical Cancer Screening." Gynecologic
Oncology 1981 Oct 12: S168-S187
Eddy DM. "The Economics of Cancer Prevention and Detection." Cancer
1981; 47:1200-1209
Eddy DM. "Guidelines for the Cancer-Related Checkup. Recommendations
and Rationale." Ca-A Cancer Journal for Clinicians 1980; 30:193-240
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Biography • Top 10 papers • Top 10 projects • Top disappointments • Markov models
